oil forecast for 2011

oil forecast for 2011 : With 2010 at a close, we take a look at oil prices over the last 12 months and attempt to make an oil price forecast for 2011, backed up by bank forecasts for 2011 and analysts and traders points of view on the coming year’s price of oil.


Oil price forecast for 2011, will oil hit $150 by summer?
Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and other large banks are forecasting higher oil prices in 2011. In fact, it’s hard to find any trader or analyst that expects oil prices to head lower anytime soon.


Our point of view is that oil futures will remain bullish and may well see $100 a barrel in the first trading week of January 2011 (forecast for Brent oil, as traded on the ICE Futures Exchange).


As for oil prices into the spring and summer of 2011, we forecast that oil prices will go higher than this. Here’s why:


1: Global Oil Demand is Higher than Oil Supply
2: There is another Bubble Emerging in the Oil Market


Of course, many short to medium term situations over the world could change this view (Middle East or Asian Conflicts) but most of the potential situations would only make oil prices go even higher. Read More


U.S. Boosts 2011 Oil Forecast on Economic Outlook
The U.S. increased its crude-oil price forecast for 2011 by $1 a barrel on projections that global economic growth will lead to higher demand and that inventories in industrialized nations will decline.


West Texas Intermediate oil, the U.S. benchmark grade, will average $83 a barrel next year, up from a September forecast of $82, according to the Energy Department’s monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook. The estimate includes an assumption that OPEC will boost its output as prices rise, tempering a bigger gain. Read More


Crude Oil and Gasoline 2011 Forecast
Crude oil is the biggest component, and accounts for about 71% of the price of gasoline as of Nov. 2010, based on EIA estimate (Fig. 1). Roughly, for every one dollar increase in the per barrel (42 gallons) price of oil, gasoline prices rise 2.5 cents per gallon. So, a ten-dollar rise in crude price per barrel would add about 25 cents at the pump. Read More
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