Top Commodities- Cocoa prices today outlook april 1, 2011 - ICO's prediction : Cocoa futures took major a nosedive Tuesday; dropping below 30.00 for the first time since January 19th. This market action could very well be signaling that settlement of the political crisis in the Ivory Coast is close at hand. Internationally recognized Alassane Quattara’s government has indefinitely extended the ban on Cocoa exports. Pro Quattara forces have now captured the Ivorian port of San Pedro. The world’s largest Cocoa exporting facilities are located there.
A lifting of the Cocoa export ban will flood the market with supply. Cocoa is the life blood of the Ivorian economy. After a bountiful harvest it would be a crying shame to see a large portion of the crop become unusable. Talk is that significant amounts of Cocoa are just sitting in piles waiting for something good to happen. The country does not have the resources to store Cocoa properly. The loss of revenue would be devastating to the country’s population.
Meanwhile, Ghana’s Cocoa output is 42.6 percent higher than last season at this time. Ghana is the world’s second largest producer of Cocoa. Cocobod, the country’s Cocoa industry regulator has stated that declared purchases by private Cocoa buyers reached 734,150 tonnes from the start of the marketing year in October to March 17. Up 42.6 percent from the same time last year, and above the total production of 632,000 tonnes produced in the 2009-10 season.
Technical Analysis is a methodology. The information below is not to be taken as trading advice or as a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity future or option. It may or may not agree with the fundamental analysis that appears above.
Weekly Technical Indications Friday 04/01/2011/10: At this time the week’s trading range is 32.74 – 29.35, the last print is 29.38. The stochastic remains in sell mode, although quite mature. R.S.I. at 44.20 is again lower than the previous week’s indication of 53.26. The M.A.C.D. histogram at –36.80 is sharply lower than last week’s reading of 3.56. A weekly close at or below 29.01 in May Cocoa will turn the weekly trend down.
Cocoa prices today outlook april 1, 2011
Cocoa prices slumped to a 2-1/2 month low as they correct lower from last month's 32-yr high. Bearish factors include (1) speculation that Ivory Coast cocoa exports may resume soon after forces loyal to elected president Ouattara move closer to capturing key cocoa-exporting ports in the Ivory Coast, and (2) ICO's prediction that 2010/11 global cocoa production will climb 7.9% to 3.898 MMT with a global cocoa surplus for 2010/11 of 119,000 MT. Bullish factors include (1) a lack of exports from the Ivory Coast , the world's biggest producer, as the disputed outcome of its Nov presidential election continues, and (3) ICO's hike in its 2009-10 global cocoa deficit estimate to 82,000 MT.
Fundamental Outlook-Near-term bearish-Cocoa prices have fallen sharply with the possibility of a restart of Ivory Cost exports. Longer-term fundamentals remain supportive with the Ivory Coast unrest and ICO's hike in its deficit estimate for the 2009/10 (Oct-Sep) marketing year to 82,000 MT. World cocoa output is seen at 3.613 MMT in 2009/10 and ICO predicts an 7.9% increase to 3.898 MMT for 2010/11. Demand in 2009/10 is up 4.0%, leading to a 4.1% y/y drawdown in ending stocks to 1.619 MMT and a tight stocks/consumption ratio of 44.6% (vs yr-earlier 48.4% and the 10-yr avg of 47.1%).
Source URL: https://pokbongkoh.blogspot.com/2011/04/top-commodities-cocoa-prices-today.htmlA lifting of the Cocoa export ban will flood the market with supply. Cocoa is the life blood of the Ivorian economy. After a bountiful harvest it would be a crying shame to see a large portion of the crop become unusable. Talk is that significant amounts of Cocoa are just sitting in piles waiting for something good to happen. The country does not have the resources to store Cocoa properly. The loss of revenue would be devastating to the country’s population.
Meanwhile, Ghana’s Cocoa output is 42.6 percent higher than last season at this time. Ghana is the world’s second largest producer of Cocoa. Cocobod, the country’s Cocoa industry regulator has stated that declared purchases by private Cocoa buyers reached 734,150 tonnes from the start of the marketing year in October to March 17. Up 42.6 percent from the same time last year, and above the total production of 632,000 tonnes produced in the 2009-10 season.
Technical Analysis is a methodology. The information below is not to be taken as trading advice or as a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity future or option. It may or may not agree with the fundamental analysis that appears above.
Weekly Technical Indications Friday 04/01/2011/10: At this time the week’s trading range is 32.74 – 29.35, the last print is 29.38. The stochastic remains in sell mode, although quite mature. R.S.I. at 44.20 is again lower than the previous week’s indication of 53.26. The M.A.C.D. histogram at –36.80 is sharply lower than last week’s reading of 3.56. A weekly close at or below 29.01 in May Cocoa will turn the weekly trend down.
Cocoa prices today outlook april 1, 2011
Cocoa prices slumped to a 2-1/2 month low as they correct lower from last month's 32-yr high. Bearish factors include (1) speculation that Ivory Coast cocoa exports may resume soon after forces loyal to elected president Ouattara move closer to capturing key cocoa-exporting ports in the Ivory Coast, and (2) ICO's prediction that 2010/11 global cocoa production will climb 7.9% to 3.898 MMT with a global cocoa surplus for 2010/11 of 119,000 MT. Bullish factors include (1) a lack of exports from the Ivory Coast , the world's biggest producer, as the disputed outcome of its Nov presidential election continues, and (3) ICO's hike in its 2009-10 global cocoa deficit estimate to 82,000 MT.
Fundamental Outlook-Near-term bearish-Cocoa prices have fallen sharply with the possibility of a restart of Ivory Cost exports. Longer-term fundamentals remain supportive with the Ivory Coast unrest and ICO's hike in its deficit estimate for the 2009/10 (Oct-Sep) marketing year to 82,000 MT. World cocoa output is seen at 3.613 MMT in 2009/10 and ICO predicts an 7.9% increase to 3.898 MMT for 2010/11. Demand in 2009/10 is up 4.0%, leading to a 4.1% y/y drawdown in ending stocks to 1.619 MMT and a tight stocks/consumption ratio of 44.6% (vs yr-earlier 48.4% and the 10-yr avg of 47.1%).
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