Top Commodities - Cotton prices Outlook - April 1, 2011 : Cotton prices are consolidating moderately below their recent record high of $2.27 a pound, the highest price since cotton began recordedtrading 140 years ago. Bearish factors include (1) the prediction from Pakistan, the fourth-largest cotton grower, that its output may surge 36% in the year beginning Jul 1 to 15 mln bales, and (2) reduced Chinese demand after Feb China imports fell -53% m/m and -17% y/y to 184,200 MT. Bullish factors include (1) USDA's Mar 31 US planted acreage estimate of 12.565 million acres, +15% y/y, but below expectations of 13.136 million acres, (2) USDA's Mar 10 cut in its global cotton production estimate for this year to 114.95 mln bales along with the cut in its global carry-over estimate to a 15-year low of 42.33 mln bales, and (3) extremely strong Chinese demand after 2010 China cotton imports surged +86% y/y to 2.84 MMT.Weekly US cotton exports (week ended Mar 24) were 451.7 thousand running bales; cumulative 2010/11 (Aug-July) exports up +48% y/y.
Fundamental Outlook- Bull market correction -Cotton prices are correcting lower but the trend remains bullish on concern global supplies may not satisfy Chinese demand, the USDA's cut its global carryover estimate to a 15-year low of 42.33 mln bales, and the global stocks/use ratio of 36.3%, the tightest since 1993-199
Source URL: https://pokbongkoh.blogspot.com/2011/04/top-commodities-cotton-prices-outlook.htmlFundamental Outlook- Bull market correction -Cotton prices are correcting lower but the trend remains bullish on concern global supplies may not satisfy Chinese demand, the USDA's cut its global carryover estimate to a 15-year low of 42.33 mln bales, and the global stocks/use ratio of 36.3%, the tightest since 1993-199
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