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India gold, silver seen continue fall from record; copper down


India gold and silver futures are likely to extend a fall from their record highs on Tuesday as investors resort to profit-taking after the gains of the last few sessions, analysts said.


The most-active gold for June delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) last closed 0.61% lower at 21,986 rupees per 10 grams, after falling from a record high of 22,172 rupees.


"We could see further downside in prices of gold to 21,900 rupees," said Abhishek Chauhan, senior analyst with Angel Commodities.


Silver for May delivery on the MCX last closed 0.9% lower at 70,129 rupees per kg, after falling from its peak of 73,600 rupees.


Silver may trade in the range of 68,000-70,500 rupees on Tuesday, said Chauhan.


The stunning rally in overseas silver fizzled, and gold edged lower after a seven-day record-setting run, as market participants return from the long Easter weekend and focus on a US Federal Reserve policy meeting starting later in the day.


COPPER: India copper futures are likely to open lower on Tuesday morning, extending losses from the previous session, following weak overseas market,


The most-traded copper for April delivery on the MCX closed 2.6% lower at 421.90 rupees per kg in the last session.


"I would go short in copper for a target of 410 rupees," said Chauhan.


LME metals fell across the board after the four-day Easter weekend as traders trimmed risk exposures ahead of a Fed interest rate meeting and US GDP data due this week. ---- READ MORE








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Golden Valley Mines Provides Update on Corporate Reorganization

Golden Valley Mines Provides Update on Corporate Reorganization : Golden Valley Mines Provides, Corporate Reorganization, Nunavik Nickel Mines Ltd, Uranium Valley Mines Ltd., Supreme Court of British Columbia, TSX Venture Exchange, Supreme Court of British Columbia, Calone Mining Ltd


Golden Valley Mines Provides Update on Corporate Reorganization
Golden Valley Mines Ltd. ("Golden Valley" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:GZZ) is pleased to announce that it has entered into an Arrangement Agreement with three of its subsidiaries, being Abitibi Royalties Inc., Nunavik Nickel Mines Ltd. and Uranium Valley Mines Ltd. (the "Subsidiaries") to effect its previously announced corporate reorganization. It has also submitted to the TSX Venture Exchange (the "Exchange") formal applications to list the common shares of the Subsidiaries on the Exchange. Golden Valley intends to seek shareholder approval of this proposed reorganization at an annual and special meeting of its shareholders scheduled to be held on or about June 30, 2011.


There can be no assurance that the reorganization will be accepted by the Exchange as proposed, or at all. In addition, completion of the proposed reorganization is subject to the approval of the Company's shareholders and the Supreme Court of British Columbia. Accordingly, no assurance can be given that the proposed reorganization will be completed as contemplated, nor that Golden Valley will achieve its reorganization objectives.


Additionally, Golden Valley will not, at this time, be making an application to list the common shares of Calone Mining Ltd., one of its subsidiaries, on the Exchange as previously announced.


About Golden Valley Mines Ltd.: The Company typically tests initial grassroots targets while owning a 100% interest therein and then seeks partners to continue exploration funding. This allows the Company to carry on its generative programs and systematic exploration efforts at other majority-owned grassroots projects. The Company (together with its various subsidiaries) holds majority property interests in projects in Canada (Saskatchewan, Ontario, and Québec) and in the Republic of Sierra Leone in West Africa.


The Company has formed three subsidiaries to hold advanced projects and/or projects that are peripheral to its core business plan (grassroots exploration) and/or outside of its main area of operations (Abitibi Greenstone Belt) and has made applications for the listing of their shares on the Exchange, namely (1) Abitibi Royalties Inc. (which holds the Malartic CHL project, an option/joint venture project with Osisko Mining Corp. ("Osisko"), a 2% NSR on the Malartic CHL prospect held by Osisko, and the Luc Bourdon and Luc Bourdon West Project, an option/joint venture project with Noront Resources Ltd. and White Pine Resources Inc.), (2) Nunavik Nickel Mines Ltd. (which holds the Company's advanced nickel-copper-PGE projects situated in the Nunavik Region of Québec, including the Fortin property), and (3) Uranium Valley Mines Ltd. (which holds the Company's 40% interest in the Beartooth Island Project, a joint venture with Ditem Explorations Inc., and the Company's 50% interest in the Otish/Mistassini Project, a joint venture with Lexam VG Gold Inc. (formerly Lexam Explorations Inc.) and which is anticipated to hold other advanced uranium joint venture projects). There can be no assurance that the reorganization will be accepted by the Exchange as proposed, or at all. In addition, completion of the proposed reorganization is subject to the approval of the Company's shareholders and the Supreme Court of British Columbia.


Forward Looking Statement: This news release contains certain statements that may be deemed "forward-looking statements. Forward looking statements are statements that are not historical facts and are generally, but not always, identified by the words "expects", "plans", "anticipates", "believes", "intends", "estimates", "projects", "potential" and similar expressions, or that events or conditions "will", "would", "may", "could" or "should" occur. Although Golden Valley believes the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or realities may differ materially from those in forward looking statements. Forward looking statements are based on the beliefs, estimates and opinions of Golden Valley's management on the date the statements are made. Except as required by law, Golden Valley undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements in the event that management's beliefs, estimates or opinions, or other factors, should change.


Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this news release. ... Read More






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Historical Gold Silver Ratio chart Predicts $100 Silver Price

gold prices today Historical Gold Silver Ratio chart Predicts $100 Silver Price : The gold silver ratio chart below shows the dramatic fashion in which silver has been outperforming gold since last August. The gold silver ratio is calculated by dividing the price of gold by the price of silver. A declining gold silver ratio indicates that silver has been outperforming gold. The gold silver ratio has declined from 65 last summer to a current level of 41.

Since August 2010 gold has moved up 22% from the $1,175 level while silver has soared 92% from the $18 range. Does the declining gold silver ratio indicate that silver prices are due for a correction or is this a fundamental change in the price relationship?

The gold silver ratio has averaged around 60 since the mid 1970's. In January 1980, as silver hit its peak price of $48.70, the gold silver ratio briefly hit 16, but rapidly rose as the Hunt brother's attempt to corner the silver market came undone and silver prices collapsed.

Will the current decline in the gold silver ratio continue? From a very long term historical perspective, a gold silver ratio in the 16 range has been the norm. Since ancient times, it has typically taken 16 ounces of silver to purchase one ounce of gold. Interestingly, the earth's reserves of silver exceeds that of gold by roughly 16 times. If this ultra long term relationship were to reassert itself, silver would sell for approximately $90 per ounce based on the current price of gold. With gold at $2,500 per ounce, silver would have a value of $156 per ounce at the historical gold silver ratio of 16.

The fundamental reason that may drive the gold silver ratio back to the 16 range is growing demand by small investors. Silver, known as the poor man's gold has seen a huge surge of public demand, as evidenced by record sales of the Silver Eagles.

Increasing public recognition of the need to preserve wealth against paper currencies will continue to propel silver to historic highs. Simply put, silver is more affordable to the average buyer who cannot afford the higher priced Gold Eagles. Silver has a lot of catching up to do and we are probably in the early stages of a fundamental reversion to a lower gold silver ratio which will send silver prices soaring past $100 per ounce.source goldandsilverblog.com...
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australian gold stocks performance 2011

australian gold stocks performance 2011 : Exciting Gold Stocks Performance Down Under in Australia : I have just completed a major overhaul of my chart set which correlates with my coverage of the Australian gold sector. It is news analysis time as I have been updating news from the end of the October releases of the September quarterly reports.


This is an intense time of the quarter for my overall company research covering the gold sector Down Under and although it is a massive undertaking to handle properly it is well worth the effort.



I also just updated my ratings tables using the new data so this is an ideal time to write this kind of article to report on the general market performance. It is also a great time to review my own performance although with great humility I have to say that this has been a spectacular time these past few months for my members and my own trading / investing activities.


This article is a score card of sorts and it does cover our own listing results in our Members and Gold Members area at GoldOz. This is discussed only for the overall purpose of describing what has happened in the Aussie gold stock sector this past several months. I have broken up the performance into each of the sub sectors of the Australian gold sector to show how broad and deep this gold stock rally has been. We have not seen action like this since the second half of 2005 in the lower ranks.


I also cover the AUD gold price because this is something I get asked about often. Offshore nvestors who listened and brought money into Australia earlier this year have made money on the exchange rate and the stocks – a double whammy bonanza. The gold stock performance detail is interesting to gold stock bugs like me as it tells a story in itself. Those of us that have been with this rally since 2001 will know what I mean and if you are newer to this opportunity then this is a chance to learn some more.


Now to the Score Card


We cover 25 larger producers, 19 mid-tier producers and 14 smaller producers and we rate them by production volume. The larger producers had 11 trading in a range this past few months but only two of these were in our short list. 11 more were in an uptrend and we had 7 of these in our short list – 5 have shown a positive divergence at present and 4 of these are in our short lists also. This latter group can be found by your own research if you look hard enough and are highly likely to perform strongly into the first half of next year.


We have one major merger in this sub sector and one delisting to the main board in London and we are sad to see this stock go. We have a few “lowest cost” quartile producers in this category but the ones to watch will be the mid to higher cost producers that are reducing their costs steadily. This is because as the AUD gold price rises their margins rise in percentage terms at a faster rate than the lower cost producers.


When the POG in Aussie dollar (AUD) terms rises these will be the major beneficiaries. I will cover the AUD gold price later in this article as it is getting very interesting – but for the many lower to medium cost producers an AUD$1200 POG is highly profitable.


The mid tier producers have done even better than their larger cousins with only two ranging (we covered only one of these) and 9 appreciated within solid up-trends. We included 5 of these in our short list and got a surprise or two ourselves. Loads of organic growth here and some serious out-performers and we covered one of the most successful with a special educational report which has been widely circulated.


The exciting aspect of this sub sector is the 5 stocks showing a positive divergence and we had 4 covered here too and looking to include the 5th. There was only one negative divergence and two that went down and we missed all that in our short list. We just included one of the falling stocks because we feel it has limited downside and great fundamentals.


The smaller preducers are mostly small scale and we scored 3 of the 6 that went up and only one of the 5 that ranged. Three went down and sad to say one was on our short list.


Before we look at the large and small developers I want to take a look at gold in AUD terms and clear something up. Some people get confused by AUD$gold and USD$gold etc but it is really simple. It is only the ratio between the currencies that changes this price nothing else.


The ideal proxy for the AUD gold price is our gold ETF that goes by the ASX code GOLD. Here is the daily chart with duration of one year.


This gold ETF trades at 1/10 of an ounce per share so multiply the price of each share x10 if you want the AUD$ Price of Gold (POG). The top circled price area coincided with a USD gold top of almost USD$1000 back in February but the AUD had plunged to 64.62c against the USD at that time which was approximately its low for the year. That AUD gold price top was a spike for many of the large producers above and the lack of follow through is responsible for the ranging patterns in many of these ever since.


Moving forward we saw a major divergence in price to RSI from April to July this year and the April plunge coincided with a low cross over on the MACD. This began a long base formation which is only breaking up just now. This is extremely bullish for the AUD gold price and our gold sector and helps explain the excellent performance of many Australian gold stocks lately along with the positive reversals I see forming.


There have been two other positive divergence patterns on the chart above also pointing the way to a trend reversal which can only mean two things. Either the AUD drops faster than the USD POG in a correction or gold accelerates faster than the AUD from here on out. Given that the AUD is getting toppy now at over 93c but with a little more upside thanks to the USD carry trade and highly attractive local investment conditions I see the latter as the most likely.


Gold has to take a breather shortly but the rally is in full swing and a February to May top in the XGD out there is likely - probably in both February and May. I am not suggesting a long term top just a moderate correction within the uptrend out in February to May 2010. The XGD (Australian Gold Index) is currently trending up in a channel and many of these stocks are still very cheap so this channel can easily continue to guide this trend upwards.


The large developers we follow have been spectacular with 17 up, 5 ranging and only one down. We short listed 8 of the gainers and have just added another. We only selected one of the 5 that ranged for our short list and unfortunately selected the only faller in the short list too. There is only one billion dollar stock in this category but there are plenty with significant upside and potential scale including one we recently featured at the top of our RSI performance table which has just shot up over 50% over the past few weeks.


I have to admit that I was not particularly interested in the smaller developers and explorers a few months back but we did select 4 of the 10 risers in this category and missed all 5 of the ranging stocks. We did not short list the only fall either showing the value of our analysis. We also have one short listed positive divergence listed in this category. I have been surprised by the strength of this sub sector given the under performance of several of the major large producers. The credit markets opened up in full to these companies also reducing investor risk and propelled these projects forward with gusto.


This is highly bullish and we do point out that even our long list which describes all of this action has been selected from hundreds of stocks that we rejected.


Finally the explorers and we mostly choose only those with a real JORC resource and a potentially tangible project outcome. 17 went up and we short listed 9 of them as potential out-performers but we missed 8 of the 11 that ranged sideways which was great. We short listed the only faller in this category however – this is part of investing and the reason you never put all your eggs in one basket.


Overall the performance of the Australian gold sector has been brilliant and if the AUD gold price heads north as I expect we may see even better times – I certainly hope and expect so. I just wish I had a bigger truck to back up but keeping your feet on the ground is the key to safe trading.


I still see some choppy action providing exactly the buying opportunity I have been waiting for. By covering the range of stocks we do there are always some rising and some correcting within the overall trend. Perhaps a little additional opportunity directly ahead if gold takes a breather on its way to US$1200 and the funds lighten up a little more into Christmas. December will certainly offer some quieter reflection time and a chance to pick up some more companies before the expected flurry into February and May next year.


Our bonus time offer is nearly over now for GoldOz subscriptions as this deal only runs to the end of November. I will hold this offer as promised and suggest that if you want in then you might want to do it pretty soon. The same goes for these stocks – do your homework and you can make bucket loads of profit.


Good trading / investing.
Regards,
Neil Charnock
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Global events currently support gold and Australian gold stocks

Top Commodities - Global events currently support gold and Australian gold stocks. Yet gold and the ASX-XGD index have been in a consolidation and correction mode of late. The Australian gold sector has underperformed gold itself over the past two weeks, within a long-term uptrend, offering some sweet pickings which we did not waste. Investors swooped on these exceptional investment opportunities late last week as the Australian gold sector surged up from oversold lows. Here are the supports (from 5 year – 1 week tick chart) I provided in Newsletter 27 released 16th March:







We are currently at important support from both the horizontal line A which is old resistance – possibly new support, and also rising trend support line B. RSI is also at key support as we have not been lower since that dramatic swan dive during the GFC in 2008.” Since I posted this for subscribers we have rallied 476 points in two days nearly touching 7,500 today (Monday 21st).



I am also very pleased to report that the GoldOz educational portfolio now has 13 different companies on the register and managed a 6% gain in the first 2 months, using less than 25% of the capital. This was not a bad result in a falling market. As I have said before there are always opportunities in all markets. This fund has now moved to over 40% of capital invested waiting for further confirmation of a renewed uptrend in these gold stocks driven by a renewed uptrend in physical gold.


I believe that fall was probably the final wash out before the uptrend resumes. To support this theory I also offer some charts on sub-sectors of these gold stocks. The first chart below is a five year chart of the larger gold producers on the ASX, without the distortion caused by Newcrest Mining on the ASX-XGD (which is weighted). Therefore this chart below offers a broader representation of the stocks and their progress or lack of it. Remember that the Australian gold price averaged well under A$900 per ounce back in 2006 to 2008.




This chart clearly illustrates that the Australian gold sector is still cheaper than the pre-GFC crash levels and yet gold is around 50% higher (now A$1400 compared to A$900). I marked an ellipse around a series of dips that ran below the 200dma since the GFC. This recent pullback was exaggerated by the situation in Japan and the “risk off” selling that followed. I also added a support trend line that held firm on this pullback.





You can see a similar picture for the emerging gold producers and a similar uptrend line also held. Again I suggest these stocks are significantly undervalued compared to gold and their previous levels back in the pre-GFC period. All credit to these companies which have been making strong progress into a rising gold price. The share prices do not yet reflect the progress made and this offers investment upside. The rising 200dma on both charts illustrates the superb uptrend in both sub-sectors.


Apparently the big money agreed with me on the 16th as we have rallied around 7% in the last two days trading, as of the close today. Now to the events that I believe will drive gold again in the short-term. The Sunnis and Shiites in the Middle East will have mixed feelings over the military intervention in Libya. The other trouble in the region is also well documented so no need to go over it again. The Middle East has just become even more volatile and I sincerely hope it does not blow up. In any case this has lit a fuse under gold and may cause a new breakout to the upside for gold in all currencies very shortly.




I am getting conflicting views on the global debt markets and there is a lot of spin about, even more than normal. The rebuilding in Japan will stimulate a massive amount of spending which is great for the economy in the medium to longer term. In the meantime they need to clean up and go through process before spending this money. In the short term the effect is negative make no mistake and this is why the Central Banks are intervening to cap the Yen.


The initial rise in the Yen was caused by a partial close in the Yen carry trade as some funds exited non-Japanese assets in order to cover loans previously taken out in Yen. This is why the AUD came off dramatically to name just one effect. We love to see the AUD come off here in Australia as it pushes the AUD gold price up increasing profits for the local producers. This initial unwind will be repeated in waves creating the need for continued intervention. The question is always – how effective is Fx intervention in these cases? Only time will tell but we suspect the CB’s will have an uphill battle for the next few months at least. Speculation would have also added to the Round 1 Yen strength.


Japan Inc includes the Sovereign Fund which holds the foreign reserves. These reserves are sitting in other currencies and bonds not cash in Yen. These holdings are not fully hedged as is being claimed in the markets and media today - this is absolute spin. The days of “spin your way out of trouble and it will all solved” are over because the troubles are just too deep. The Greenspan days were classic for this but now jawboning is gradually becoming less and less effective. The Japanese would not buy risky high yield assets and then fully hedge then what would be the point?


The best result possible for global debt markets would be that the Japanese just stopped buying new bond issues, but continued to roll over their foreign bond holdings on maturity. This is highly unlikely but it would still place a serious new pressure on global debt markets. Remember recently when debt markets celebrated that Japan was supporting PIIGS bond issues? This would all stop under this scenario. Now consider that the rebuild has just been revised up to US$500B and you soon see there will have to be some sales of foreign denominated reserve assets. This all puts pressure on the Yen – upwards.


There will be increased currency volatility over this coming period and this is great for gold. The Central banks are trying to cap the Yen suggesting that the Yen will be going up in waves and the AUD will be under pressure. This is great for Australian gold stocks. The world is not looking too keen on USD here and this also puts pressure on the Euro – going up. This adds great pressure to the PIIGS as they need a depreciating asset, a weak Euro. So do Germany and France as this assists them with exports and drives their economies.


Japanese retail investors were heavy buyers of Kangaroo bonds and many of these investors will want to bring home their money over coming weeks and months. This is also bad for the AUD and puts pressure on the Australian banks. Add the Japanese fund, insurance and company repatriation activity due to need and the risk of the carry trade unwinding and you have a significant capital flow. We also suspect added pressure will be on the bond sales in the US and Europe in the short to medium-term. Chances are the Japanese will want to sell some risky Euro debt to avoid potential losses – this is not a pretty picture.


The selloff on gold last week reversed quickly as expected here at GoldOz. This is another reason why we waded in and increased holdings of Australian gold stocks in our educational portfolio. Gold bounced off the 20 week moving average confirming current strength. I have been excited by the gold stock behaviour for some time because the juniors are performing alongside the larger stocks. This is gearing up for a tremendous rally based on my observation of gold stock behaviour during the last ten years. We are offering further education and market coverage in a client only Newsletter which is part of our Gold Members service. This service is currently on special, selling at a discount if you want to take advantage of this opportunity or just have interest to increase your knowledge on the Australian gold sector- we would be happy to have you aboard.source news.goldseek.com ...
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